Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa and within top 50 economies worldwide, with GDP of $475B in 2019. This is projected to grow to $736B by 2023 (The Economist Intelligence Unit, 2021). It is also the largest country in Africa by population and 7th worldwide, with a population of 206M (2020). (The World Bank, 2021)
Figure 32 Nigeria country profile
3air in cooperation with K3 will build the K3 Lastmile solution infrastructure in Nigeria. Nigeria is considered the biggest market in Africa and the “golden country” for 3air. The aim is to build K3 Lastmile solution infrastructure simultaneously in Abuja and Lagos with the combined population of over 26M.
Nigeria has a huge lack of modern broadband access in all cities.
Nigerian Federal Government is working hard to provide education, infrastructure and financial support on information technology and literacy. Currently there are 3 major campaigns running:
- Government supported Universal Service Provision Fund (USPF) intended to achieve national policy goals for universal access and universal service to information and communication technologies (ICTs) in rural, unserved, and underserved areas. (USPF, 2021)
- Intensive nationwide awareness campaign to educate the citizenry about the value of ICT services. (Agyeman, 2007)
- Introduction to digital literacy education and training programs across all levels of education. (Federal Ministry of Education, 2019) (Oye & Aiahad, 2015)
The Federal Government is also driving various initiatives aimed at infrastructure improvement, funding & incentives, and demand drivers in order to achieve improved coverage, quality and penetration as contained in the Nigerian National Broadband Plan 2020 – 2025. (Nigerian Communications Commission, 2020)
K3 already holds an Internet Services License (“ISL”) issued by the Nigerian Communications Commission (“NCC”) under the Nigerian Communications Commission Act. This allows K3 to operate in Nigeria within its ISP scope including broadband, digital TV, and IP telephony services. Following funding, K3 will set up the network, build the infrastructure, train the local team, and launch operations with 4 base stations.
This setup will achieve coverage of about 90% in Abuja and Lagos.
The duration of setup from the time of funding till launch will take about 22 weeks.
Figure 33 Nigeria implementation time schedule
After launch, each person in the coverage area will have the ability to obtain modern triple play services (internet, Digital TV, IP telephony) equal to that of cable. Upon reaching profitability (with 100 business or 2000 retail clients), we will expand services to other areas in Nigeria. To remain conservative, the projected economics only include operations in Abuja and Lagos.
By 2022, the estimated market size of the fixed broadband segment in Nigeria will be $752 Mn, representing a 96% growth from 2017 revenues. This growth is expected to be driven by increased demand and improved purchasing power.
Figure 34 Entertainment and media outlook: 2017 – 2021 An African perspective: https://www.pwc.co.za/en/assets/pdf/entertainment-and-media-outlook-2017.pdf * Nigeria’s telecoms and media revenue is expected to increase from $7.3bn in 2017 to $11.2bn by 2022, at a CAGR of 7.5%. * Mobile revenues continue to dominate the market accounting for 88.9% of revenues in 2017 and is expected to grow to 90.5% by 2022. * The fixed broadband segment, the fastest growing segment driven by increased demand from high-end users will see its revenue share grow from 3.7% in 2017 to 4.5% by 2022. * Key drivers include improved household spending & increased demand.
High level Economics:
- Expected to yield EBTIDA margins of about 50%-60%.
- Profitability is reached with only ~2,000 customers.
- Break-even time per customer is 2-4 months.
210,000 customers in Nigeria will yield an entity value of $1.6B (210,000 customer equates to about 20% of the addressable market).
|Total revenue||$7 M||$46 M||$105 M||$184 M|
|EBITDA||($1,5 M)||$41 M||$99 M||$177 M|
Table 10 Nigeria operations Profit and Loss statement
We intentionally remain conservative in our projections. In Abuja and Lagos alone, indications point to a much great growth potential. With 26 million people in both cities, a high cost of living for western standards (>$5,500 rent a month for a 3-bedroom apartment) (Numbeo, 2021), and a shocking lack of true broadband and modern entertainment services, the market is in desperate need for modern standards.
The total required capital until profitability is reached is $15 million, inclusive of prudent reserves. Of that required capital, $3 million will be used for the initial infrastructure set up to provide coverage for all of Abuja and Lagos; $3 million will be used for CEP / User inventory for the first 6,000 customers; and $6 million will be used for working capital until profitability is reached ($3.0 million is budged as a reserve).
Detailed business plan is available for interested, registered investors on request.